The Q Report – Q4 2024 - Dirk VanderWal Real Estate

INTRODUCTION

Welcome, Q Report readers, to 2025! We are happy you’re reading, and look forward to keeping you informed through what promises to be another newsworthy year in real estate.

2024 was another interesting year for housing market watchers in Victoria, ending 10% ahead of 2023 for closed sales
But as you see in the chart below, it got there by following 2023’s below-average right up until the fall, and then spent the rest of the year running slightly ahead of average.

The timing of the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts clearly influenced the pace of sales looking at these Y/Y stats. Interestingly, fixed rates stayed mostly within a fairly consistent 50bps range throughout the year, so the effect of rate cuts was probably more psychological.
The other big trend was listing inventory. We spent most of the year with a standing inventory of more than 3,000 active listings, which as we pointed out, was a level that had barely been hit in the preceding decade.
This increased number of listings didn’t really have a negative impact on values — perhaps because it was still a lower number than historical or statistical buyers markets — but they did give both buyers and sellers a relatively even playing field.

MARKET BREAKDOWN

Overview

Q4’s numbers are subject to a strong base year effect, as Q4 2023 was one of the softest quarters we’ve seen in around a decade.
Most metrics underperformed compared to long-run averages, but still look strong compared to last year.

Detached Homes, <$1.5M

Prices have been running pretty well flat for around two years, both median and PPSF — which is not a bad thing after the post-COVID run up and subsequent correction. This is also showing up in listing discounts maintaining a fairly consistent +/-3%.
Market times are little changed from a year ago, and we anticipate a seasonal dip to arrive with spring.
Active listings typically drop in the winter, and this year was no different — but will they come back up in spring?

Strata Homes, <$1.5M

Pricing for strata product has seen the least fluctuation of our categories. We were surprised that the spike in inventory and slower sales earlier in the year didn’t end up leading to prices softening, though we do see a bit showing up in PPSF.
Monthly regional stats in Q4 were the first time we have seen condos outperform detached and townhome product in well over a year. So, we’re calling it: condos are back. It’s a good sign of strength in the market as condos are usually the first thing to struggle and the last thing to recover during market cycles.
There is still a good amount of inventory available, more than twice as many strata homes compared to detached, so favourable conditions for those considering a purchase remain.

Luxury Homes, >$1.5M

Median sale price for luxury product tends to be more susceptible to swings given to the broad range of sale prices, which was the case with an apparent 7% Q/QW jump, but we see stability in our PPSF metric.
Average monthly active luxury listings did drop off significantly in Q4, but remains in line with the broader upward trend.

HPI® TRENDS

The MLS® Home Price Index® (MLS® HPI®) is purpose-built to gauge neighbourhoods’ home price levels and trends, using more than a decade of sales data and sophisticated statistical models to define a “typical” home based on the value home buyers assign to various attributes on homes that have been bought and sold. These benchmark homes are tracked across localized neighbourhoods and different types of houses. The Q Report’s HPI® trends compares relative regional price movements around Greater Victoria by tracking the HPI® Composite Benchmark Price across 15 districts, comparing Y/Y price changes.

While most areas carried on the boring/flat drift, very few areas composite index values were actually down compared to a year ago, and most showed very modest gains.
Highlands and North Saanich, both areas with very few strata properties in the mix mostly comprised of larger, pricier, more rural homes on larger plots, pulled out the biggest gains, with the HPI composite for Highlands up almost 10% Y/Y.

LOOKING AHEAD

In the near term, the potential for a US-Canada trade war could have negative effects on the Canadian economy, and on Canadian real estate, by extension. Fortunately, BC is more shielded from exposure than much of the country, so we expect our economy will fare reasonably well.
There’s also a decent chance we will see this was all classic Trump bluster, and his initially outrageous position could moderate.
We expect the CMHC mortgage rule changes that came into effect at the end of 2024 to drive activity, particularly in the single family detached market, as the cap for insured mortgages has been raised to allow high-ratio borrowers to purchase homes up to $1.5M with much more attainable down payment requirements.
First time buyers will also have access to 30-year amortizations, which helps boost affordability by paring down monthly payments.
It appears we are heading into 2025 with enough momentum to expect a fairly active spring market.

IN CLOSING

If you are thinking about making a move this year, do you think being well-informed, and having customized data insights would help you make the right decisions along the way? Get in touch now, book a no-hassle, no-obligation meeting and get our market insights working for you. We are only a click or call away.

Do you or someone you know need real estate advice, personalized market insights, a home marketed and sold using the best tools and accurate data? We are available to be your personal resource. Get in touch.

Subscribe, follow us on your favourite social platform, and reach out any time.

Dirk VanderWal & Fergus Kyne
Newport Realty Ltd.
(250) 385-2033 | info@victoriaqreport.com

Request a Consultation

Notes

All views and opinions expressed in The Q Report are solely those of its authors, Dirk VanderWal and Fergus Kyne, and do not necessarily represent the views or opinions of Newport Realty Ltd. or the Victoria Real Estate Board. Not intended to solicit parties already under contract. E&OE.

Terms

For a list of terms and definitions used in The Q Report, click here.

Data Analysis

The Q Report’s analysis includes listing and sales data exclusively from the Victoria Real Estate Board’s Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) ‘Core’, ‘Westshore’, and ‘Peninsula’ regions. Data is analyzed for unconditional pending and completed sales that occurred between 2024/10/01 and 2024/12/31 except where speciﬁcally noted otherwise.

Data Sources

Bank of Canada
BC Real Estate Association
Canadian Real Estate Association
Financial Post
Global News
CTV News
Statistics Canada
The Globe and Mail
Victoria Real Estate Board

Dirk VanderWal

Trusted. Respected. Recommended.

Dirk VanderWal

The Q Report – Q4 2024

INTRODUCTION

MARKET BREAKDOWN

HPI® TRENDS

LOOKING AHEAD

IN CLOSING

Get in Touch

Office Info